2021 Is An Outlier, Not a Benchmark
October 26, 2022
2022 is constantly being compared to 2021, which was anything but normal, and year-over-year comparisons are painting a deeply negative picture.
In reality, 2022 has tracked favorably to the historical average and is still in the “normal” territory even considering high inflation, rising interest rates, and a market slowdown.
MANHATTAN
Compared to the historical average of the eight years prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic (2012-2019):
> Transaction volume is down 10% in 2022 with 2.5 months remaining in the year.
> Transaction volumes were down 64% in 2020 and up 21% in 2021 — notable outliers.
Historically, the average transaction volume per month for October, November, and December is 1,105.
It will only take 421 transactions per month (October – December) in order for 2022 to match the historical average.
BROOKLYN
Compared to the historical average of the eight years prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic (2012-2019):
> Transaction volume is down 7% in 2022 with 2.5 months remaining in the year.
> Transaction volumes were down 28% in 2020 and up 23% in 2021 — notable outliers, but not as severe as Manhattan.
Brooklyn proved to be more resilient. Due in part because Brooklyn’s median sale price is 23% less than Manhattan’s.
Historically, the average transaction volume per month for October, November, and December is 1,020.
It will only take 268 transactions per month (October – December) for 2022 to match the historical average.
If we consider 2021 the outlier and not the benchmark, the market in 2022 doesn’t look nearly as catastrophic as headlines suggest!
