What’s happening with the market?

We wanted to provide you with the latest as to what is happening right now with the Manhattan and Brooklyn markets. To do so, we’ve pulled from our own proprietary data set, which was compiled and validated against commonly available sources, cleaned, then reorganized in ways we can leverage for you.

Yesterday Governor Cuomo announced that NYC is in position to reopen Phase 1 on June 8, including construction, manufacturing, and some retail. Under his plan, if all goes well Phase 2, which includes real estate showings, can resume as early as June 22, which means Sellers are and will begin listing their properties on the market. There is an expectation that pent up demand will spur activity in the city, though no one knows exactly how much.
 

The above compares 2019 new listing activity to 2020.  We went from adding 500-700 new listings per week in April to less than 100 per week. The result: in Manhattan we have only 3,544 listings or 53% less than the 7,554 listings we saw in 2019. In Brooklyn, we have 3,405 listings or 44% less than the 6,111 listings from 2019.

However, there is a clear uptick in the last couple weeks, suggesting that the floodgates will open on new sale listings this summer as inventory tries to “catch up.”
 

The above compares the number of listings that went into contract each week in 2019 versus 2020. Instead of roughly 250 contracts signed per week in 2019, we have been hovering around 50 contracts per week (20% of last year’s level).

It is important to mention here that the above are merely snapshots of what is CURRENTLY happening, but doesn’t necessarily represent what WILL happen once real estate showings resume.

BUYERS: As a buyer, the ability to quickly identify value beyond applying broad-market discounts will be critical during the reopening. Some sellers may actually “undershoot” the market if particularly motivated to move on, and you will want to be able to identify those listings right away. Other sellers will “overshoot” the market in order to leave room for negotiation. We should hone in on your target with some concrete valuation parameters prior to the reopening.

SELLERS: As a seller, timing and price will be a function of the type of inventory you have. The larger apartments will have less demand, while post-COVID trends in demand (i.e., outdoor space) will likely lead the way. If you are looking to sell, it is critical to understand and anticipate pricing that is backed by up-to-date data so that you come to market and get absorbed with the first wave of inventory rather than lose momentum and have to adjust. We are no longer in a simple market where the last comp sold dictates current pricing. There are more factors to consider.

As always we are here if you need us. Stay safe.