6 Months of Post-Pandemic Data

Happy New Year, Everyone!
 
We hope that you all had a safe and enjoyable holiday season. We’re back with more market updates. We now have 6 full months of “In Contract” activity we’ve been tracking post-reopening. If you recall, we started tracking “In Contract” sales as a proxy for demand after the pandemic hit because there wasn’t enough information yet on actual sales prices. Next month, we’ll start to look at how actual sales prices changed.
 

 

 

 
Here are a few nuggets we can clean from the data;
 
1. 2020 Manhattan “in contract” activity for the 2nd half of the year is actually catching up to 2019 activity, with only Townhouses overtaking 2019 numbers. Unsurprisingly, condos lagged behind the most as we are still seeing the best deals in this category. Surprising to some, however, is that co-ops, too, are lagging behind which means two things: (a) even the entry-level Manhattan market has slowed and (b) there could be deals to be had (indeed this is what our buyers are seeing).
 
Since co-op inventory isn’t changing much (new development is primarily condo), this likely means there is a limited window of opportunity to get a deal on a Manhattan co-op because as sentiment around NYC improves in the next 6-12 months now that we have vaccines, more primary resident buyers will jump into the market in NYC.
 
2. Brooklyn co-ops continue to be the hottest residential asset on the planet (the world does revolve around NYC, after all). During uncertain times, it’s incredibly important to watch the co-op asset class because it’s driven by primary residence home buyers — those that are going long on NYC. The condo buyer includes investors, and its inventory is constantly in flux, so it isn’t as close of an indicator of the staying power of NYC.
 
Next month we’ll look at how all of the “in contract” activity (or lack thereof) has affected prices.
 
Till next time,
The Formation Team